Londres, 28 mars 2014
Standard & Poor’s a confirmé ce vendredi la note de crédit souverain « AA+ » de l’Autriche.
L’agence de notation a accompagné cette confirmation d’une perspective stable en soulignant la cohérence de la gouvernance de l’Autriche et sa volonté de mettre en place une politique économique destinée à soutenir la croissance. /RLU
Londres, 28 mars 2014
Standard & Poor’s a confirmé vendredi la note souveraine de la Suède à « AAA » avec une perspective stable.
L’agence de notation souligne la politique économique efficace de la Suède ainsi que sa discipline budgétaire et sa flexibilité en matière de politique monétaire. /RLU
London, 22 March 2014
The London exhibition marked the bridge over the business years 2013/2014 in an interesting, original way. This exhibition displayed more than 300 objects from the Museo del Oro in Bogotá and the British Museum’s own pre-Colombian collection.
The special guests from London’s British Museum will be soon flying back to Colombia. Rain forest’s fantastic creatures crowded the exhibition rooms of the British Museum with golden frogs, paradise birds, tinysacred figurines, etc. Their visit in London has brought a instructive winter story about resources to many aesthetes, handicrafts and business people as well, at the intersection of cultural tradition and personal expression. However, there is no way but to rethink the power of gold in the era of digital money. The fascinating masterworks from Colombia stand for the true roots of El Dorado, “the Golden One”, and the ancient burgh of Gold. In front of these artisans’ wonders emerges a never fully exhausted question. Which is the distinctive feature of gold among other metal resources and where does its strongly inspirational power for human behaviour come from? RLU
Continue reading in Download (PDF) Mirror of El Dorado
Astrid Frefel, Tripolis
Börse Libyen, (Bild: Keystone / Reuters / Ismail Zitouny
Entre le 7 et le 24 février, plusieurs entreprises européennes ont retiré leurs représentants depuis la Libye. Ils le font de toute façon, quand les politiques locales encourent des événements tels que des élections, qui pourraient éventuellement être accompagnées de violence. De toute façon les consignes de sécurité strictes s’appliquent dans tout le pays. De nombreux hommes d’affaires ont acheté des véhicules sécurisés. Les cas d’enlèvements et de meurtres d’étrangers, en particulier dans l’est, surtout de la région de Benghazi, se sont multipliés au cours des derniers mois. La dernière onde de choc dans les milieux d’affaires étrangers a provoqué la mort d’un ingénieur Français à Benghazi. Celui-ci travaillait dans le secteur médical. « Nous sommes toujours assis sur des valises », conclue une femme d’affaires étrangère à Tripoli pour décrire la situation précaire.
voir plus suivez Download (PDF) Libyen Ausländische Investoren
Rovaniemi, 11-13 March, 2014
Geological potentials, excellent infrastructure, and positive attitudes do make the Arctic the world’s best mining-investment destination, but the ongoing financial crisis and low raw-material prices continue to fan doubts about the profitability of new exploration ventures. Investors’ hesitations have deepened further following unfortunate mining projects that created environmental problems and adverse impacts on issuance of mining licences and permits.
The issues are set to see threadbare discussions at the upcoming three-day conference of Arctic Business Forum (ABF). The fifth ABF conference hosted by the Lapland Chamber of Commerce begins on March 11 at Rovaniemi of Finland with a session on mining slated for day three. At the session, Anton Löf, Senior Iron Ore Analyst, Raw Materials Group, Sweden will present the keynote titled ‘Mining in The European High North – Still Profitable and Sustainable?’ Löf, who embodies extensive consulting experience with the private sector and international organisations such as UNCTAD and World Bank, will table the latest trends in the sector.
Vesa Nykänen, Manager, Geological Survey of Finland will speak on the arctic mineral potentials while the mining operators’ points of view will be represented by Igor Melik- Gaikazov, Executive Director, OJSC Kovdorski GOK, Russia and Andrew Reid, CEO of First Quantum Minerals in Finland. Mining sustainability will be the focus of the presentations to be made by Vladimir Masloboev, Vice President, Kola Science Center of RAS, Russia and Harry Sandström, Senior Consultant of Spinverse.
Right geology, long mining tradition, efficiently organised data and readily available services of the type required by drilling companies make the High North a favourable investment and operating environment for the mining industry. Last year, over 700 mining and exploration companies who responded to the 2012/2013 Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies ranked Finland as the best place to do business followed by Sweden. The rest of the top 10 jurisdictions found in the survey conducted by the Canadian thinktank are Alberta, New Brunswick, Wyoming, Ireland, Nevada, Yukon, and Norway.
The confidence miners have in Finland and Sweden proves that resource development and environmental protection can go hand in hand,’ noted Kenneth Green, Fraser Institute’s Senior Director of Energy and Natural Resources in the study report released in February 2013.
Finland, which aims to be the global leader in sustainable mining by 2020, demands strict environmental requirements with compliance monitoring aiming at minimizing possible pollutions. But the overall positive attitudes of the government make the country a pro-mining land. It has a developed infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and competitive operating costs. Red tape is minimal and Finland is one of the least corrupt countries in the world, according to the Transparency International.
Finland has a very strong economic co-operation and clean technology, which is the strongest industrial sector currently being developed in this country,’ observed Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen on May 27, 2013 during a visit to Poland, reports the Finland Times. Mining activities in Finland are currently concentrated in gold, platinum group metals, base metals, diamonds, and industrial minerals, but opportunities in many commodity products are still very much under-explored. At a seminar in Rovaniemi in September last, researchers said mining industries should consider social impact, social regulations and environmental aspect before, during and after mining periods.
In a research report they said residents of three northern localities – Kittilä, Kolari and Muonio – thought mines in their areas had brought about a significant development in their life.
Finland has undertaken a green mining programme (Tekes) aimed at creating new business that requires new, specialised expertise alongside the growing field of traditional mining, increasing the number of SMEs targeting the export market in the mineral cluster, and achieving a global leader status in research in the sector.
Source: www. arcticbusinessforum.com
TORONTO, March 7, 2014
Teck Resources Limited is the recipient of this year’s Environmental and Social Responsibility Award. Teck Resources Limited is receiving the award for its outstanding accomplishments and commitment to sustainability, environmental and social initiatives.
In 2011, Teck developed a comprehensive strategy, focusing on long- and short-term goals that will achieve the company’s vision for sustainability. The sustainability strategy supports six key areas that represent the biggest challenges and opportunities for the mining sector: community, people, water, biodiversity, energy, and materials stewardship. Dedicated to building value through partnerships, Teck aims to address local and global sustainability issues./RLU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNa6Fj0e4-Q&list=UUWKuOPzHxzwCOrMNaKuAX3A
Source: PDAC 2014, www.teck.com
Toronto, March 2, 2014
The PDAC’s CSR Event Series aims to facilitate multi-stakeholder dialogue and peer learning on key issues related to CSR in the mineral industry. Sessions are free to attend and open to all registered convention delegates.
Sunday, March 2
8:30 to 10:00am
The Beyond Zero Harm Framework Organizers: IAMGOLD
How can the mining industry measure and demonstrate changes in well-being of mining-impacted communities? The Beyond Zero Harm Framework provides a comprehensive roadmap to tackling this fundamental question. Developed by a multi-stakeholder working group of companies, NGOs and academics, the tool establishes a participatory framework for measuring and demonstrating these changes. The session will be the first public introduction of the framework.
10:30am to 12:00pm
Getting It Right: Community engagement for junior companies Organizer: Triple R Alliance and PDAC
Community engagement is frequently misunderstood and seen as difficult, costly, and not connected to a company’s bottom line. In reality, engagement can be the most cost-effective approach to mitigating social risks. This session will provide a step-by-step approach to community engagement designed for smaller teams. Practical tools will be provided that companies can apply to projects of any size, at any stage, and in any context.
1:00 to 2:30pm
Balancing Performance in Uncertain Times: The relationship between capital markets and environmental and social risks Organizer: Environmental Resources Management (ERM)
This session will examine how effective environmental and social management translates into key finance decisions, whether the capital comes from bank loans, equity markets or cash from existing operations. This panel of top industry executives and financiers will introduce factors currently affecting the capital market climate, and discuss practical ways juniors and majors alike can make a water-tight case for additional funds if they wish to acquire, expand and/or optimize new or current assets.
3:00 to 4:30pm
What You Need to Know and Do: Lessons learned from Mesoamerica Organizer: On Common Ground
Mesoamerica (southern Mexico to Costa Rica) has a current reputation for complex social conflicts. Speakers selected for their willingness to talk candidly about the challenges and opportunities of working with communities in Mesoamerica will provide context for the realities facing explorers on the ground and describe proven tools to address this reality. Facilitated discussion with participants will allow further examination of how to avoid the greatest risks, apply the tools and gain a social license.
Monday, March 3
10:30 to 12:00pm
Local Procurement: Strategies, tools and the benefits for companies and communities Organizer: Engineers Without Borders Canada
Through increasing local procurement of goods and services, companies have an effective method of maximizing the benefits of their investment for host communities and countries, while contributing to their social license to operate. Local procurement leads to more local jobs and income, transfers skills and technology, and helps to create vital domestic business networks. This session will showcase different field-tested approaches stakeholders are taking to increase local procurement.
1:30 to 3:00pm
Water, Mining and Stakeholders: Communicating with communities, government and investors Organizer: International Finance Corporation (IFC)
The economic, environmental, social and cultural values of water are one of the most challenging aspects of a mining project to measure and communicate with diverse stakeholder groups. IFC will bring together technical experts on mine development, communications, community engagement, grievance mechanisms and finance to discuss examples of how companies can avoid conflict, engage in effective dialogue, and earn a social license to operate around water.
3:30 to 5:00pm
The Role of Government in Company-Community Relationships: Lessons from Peru Organizer: Peruvian-Canadian Chamber of Commerce
In order to solve the conflicts between companies and communities, the Government of Peru is actively working to change the dynamic between exploration and mining companies and local community stakeholders. With a panel of company, government, and civil society representatives from Peru, this session will examine relationship management at all stages of the mining lifecycle with a focus on the Government of Peru’s role in moving from dialogue tables to development tables.
Tuesday, March 4
4:00 – 5:30pm
Resource nationalism is commonly cited as the key risk for exploration Resource Nationalism: Moving beyond a narrative of threat Organizer: International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) and PDAC and mining companies. Now used as a general label for a series of policy changes, resource nationalism presents significant challenges and opportunities for companies and host governments alike. Through discussion with a panel of leaders from industry, government, and international civil society, this session will address the issues surrounding resource nationalism and start moving the conversation towards a constructive dialogue.
5:30 to 6:30pm
CSR Event Series Closing Reception
A networking reception for CSR practitioners.
More information contact: Emily Nunn – Manager, CSR at enunn@pdac.ca
http://www.pdac.ca
Zurich, 4 March, 2014
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided to temporarily increase the key rate (1-week repo rate) by 1.5 pp up to 7.0%. The cost of other refinancing instruments will increase accordingly (i.e. FX swaps – up to 8%). The decision came as a surprise to the market although many investors considered a monetary policy tightening after the CBR’s meeting on 14 February as a possible scenario.
Emergency measure?
It may be considered as an emergency measure to catch that inflationary risks due to the FX shock (maximum +0.7 pp. to CPI level in 2014) and in order to sustained RUB weakness which could eventually be much higher as the situation with Ukraine is escalating and RUB depreciation has become more acute. This measure should limit RUB depreciation and devaluation expectations. Already today RUB rate was around 36.5/USD and 50.2/EUR despite the fact that during weekend at currency exchange points the rate was RUB 2-3 higher.
The rouble has been depreciating by almost 10% ytd and 18% yoy. In opposition to mid-last year the rouble seemed to be much more in focus and depreciated stronger in comparison to other emerging markets and other major CEE currencies.
Thus the high pressure on the CBR to tighten policy is continuing despite the sluggish economy. In particular this has been the case since several other pressured central banks among global emerging markets chose to act earlier. The Turkish Central Bank hiked in January effectively by +225bp, while Brazil and South African regulators have been in a strong tightening mode for some time.
Outlook
Given that the Russian FX market is currently driven more by political issues rather than economic ones today’s measure could have a limited effect. With the turmoil around Ukraine to persist for some while and given the lack of clear positive shift in fundamentals we remain short term bearish on the rouble, but would see some appreciation potential from elevated levels if the situation around Ukraine calms down. In the short term the upward pressure on the RUB rates will intensify due to cash outflow (ahead of spring holidays and difficult situation on FX market) as well as the CBR’s interventions.There is a lot of concern about the pressure which this measure could put on the money market and the banking system as a whole. On Monday 3 March, the money market rates are at 7-8% compared to 6.3% at the end of the previous week./RLU
3 March, Zurich
Ukraine as Achille’s Tendon
News over the military tensions out of the region during last days are less than encouraging for stock market. They have not been positively taken at the open on Monday by Russian stocks, bonds, and the ruble.
Russia is already paying an economic price for its actions in Ukraine.
The Russian Central Bank was forced to hike interest rates over night from 5.5% to 7% in order to stem the plunging Russian ruble. And the stock market has actually crashed. The MICEX index, the country’s benchmark index, is down 8% in early going.
Source: Bloomberg
The market has already been quite bearish on Russian assets this year, particularly the ruble. But the prospect of sanctions and an expensive conflict are leading to swift punishment in the market. And it is by far not the best timing.
The latest manufacturing PMI report that came out this morning is not full of hopeful outlook. Russia is seeing its fourth straight month of contractions, with a reading of 48.5. New business developments and employment in Russian companies both declined, with new orders seeing their fastest contraction since 2009.
The market has already been quite bearish on Russian assets this year, particularly the ruble. But the prospect of sanctions and an expensive conflict are leading to swift punishment in the market. Therefore, a hike in interest rates and a stock market crash is not what Russia would really need today./RLU
Zurich, 26 February
Key Economic Indicators
Source: IMF WEO as of October 2013, Thomson Reuters
The today move of the National Bank of Ukraine to officially announce a more flexible exchange rate policy can be seen as anticipation of IMF/EU demands. Today the UAH (national currency) slumped even further reaching the level of USD/UAH 10, bringing total depreciation to 20% from the beginning of the year. With markets expecting the IMF to demand more FX flexibility but doubting the sufficiency of reserves, the near term outlook of the currency before external support is in place is highly uncertain, with a substantial risk of overshooting.
Ukraine will need large-scale and quick financial assistance ultimately, possibly more than USD 35 bn. Given both, an unsustainable external and fiscal position, it is no doubt that Ukraine will need large-scale financial assistance going forward. Recent rumored sums in the range of USD 25-35 bn might be sufficient to cover the immediate financing gap over the next 1-2 years.
Market voices presume that even a somewhat larger sum might be needed in order to have sufficient buffers. Any large-scale IMF/EU support package should bring in sufficient buffers for potential downsides (e.g. retaliation measures of Russia, potential recapitalisation needs in the banking sector). In order to reach an overall financing volume of USD 35 bn (or more) EU and European countries (via bilateral loans) have to make sizable important commitments.
IMF/EU and Ukrainian authorities will have to meet the right decision. The challenge will play an important part between increasing currency flexibility, fiscal austerity and structural reforms. There is no doubt that a large-scale joint IMF/EU support package cannot be just about the provision of funding to Ukrainian authorities (i.e. the Ukrainian National Bank and directly or indirectly also the Treasury). Large-scale IMF/EU financial assistance is likely to come with tangible demand for reforms and conditionality attached. The targeted areas for reforms will most likely be similar to previous support packages (as the main vulnerabilities and weakness of the Ukrainian economy are more or less the same compared to previous bail-outs). Therefore, the question of the exchange rate regime will surely be an issue of dicussion. IMF argued already for years in favour of a higher degree of exchange rate flexibility in case of Ukraine (which was also included in previous IMF deals, but was not implemented).
The question of changes to the Ukrainian exchange rate (regime) has to be seen in context of recent exchange rate developments geographical region. The Russian rouble (RUB) and Kazakh tenge already experienced significant devaluations (in case of the RUB spread throughout 2013 and 2014; in case of Kazakhstan as a large one-off devaluation recently). These developments are logically increasing (market) pressure on UAH. Therefore, from this perspective additional UAH devaluation. /RLU