Archives de catégorie : Nouvelles

SNB – The CHF appreciation with severe repercussions on CE/SEE region

 Zurich, January 15, 2015

South Eastern European currency echoes 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today  announced that they are scrapping the EUR/CHF 1.20 cap (set some 3 years ago). As a response the CHF has shown considerable appreciation against the EUR and is inducing several CEE currencies towards their all-time lows against the CHF. Moreover, one should not see any quick reversal in the EUR/CHF exchange rate over the next months or so, with volatility and market speculation in CHF to remain high.

BNRThe CHF appreciation is  having considerbly severe implications on the CE/SEE region, especially given the noticeable CHF denominated loan shares in Poland, Hungary but also Croatia, Romania or Serbia.

Whereas the projections were a more or less steady EUR/CHF exchange rate at just above 1.20 throughout 2015, the current CHF appreciation will cause CHF/PLN, CHF/HUF, CHF/RON, CHF/HRK and CHF/RSD  considerable depreciation compared to previous forecasts of roughly 20%. Additionally given that the current exchange rate forecasts for EUR/PLN, EUR/HUF and EUR/RON are already on the more positive side, a revision towards weaker EUR/LCY has become more likely. Thereby negative effects for PLN, HUF and RON against CHF could be higher, whereas specialists currently see no EUR/LCY adjustment needed in Serbia or Croatia. Additional depreciation pressure of the CEE currencies against the EUR and hence the CHF in the months ahead may arise from the outlook for very subdued price growth in nearly all CEE markets (excluding Russia and Ukraine) as well as the outlook for more monetary easing or other non-orthodox monetary policy measures compared to Eastern European specialist current baseline forecasts.

With regards to potential effects on the CEE banking sectors we see the effects from the recent CHF jump to be strongest in Poland given the fact that in Hungary some FCY and CHF exposures have already disappeared due to (enforced) conversions, while the conversion rate for the next round has already been fixed. Nevertheless, there is also modest CHF loan exposure out there in the Croatian, Serbian and Romanian banking sector. That said it has to be stressed that CHF exposures in CEE are by and large in retail lending, while a lot of CHF borrowers had been already under pressure before the most recent CHF sprint./RLU

Banque Nationale Suisse – L’abandon du plancher

L’abandon du taux plancher va laisser des traces dans l’économie suisse
15 Janvier 2015

Genève, BILAN du 15 Janvier 2015
PAR AWP  BANQUE NATIONALE SUISSE  – L’abandon du taux plancher par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), annoncé jeudi, va laisser des traces dans l’économie helvétique notamment au niveau des exportations, selon UBS.

_swiss-national-bankL’abandon du taux plancher par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), annoncé jeudi, va laisser des traces dans l’économie helvétique notamment au niveau des exportations, a estimé l’économiste en chef d’UBS pour la Suisse, Daniel Kalt. La Confédération ne devrait cependant pas tomber en récession après cette décision, a-t-il indiqué à des journalistes.

« Les exportateurs suisses ont démontré ces quatre dernières années, qu’ils ont pu s’adapter à un franc plus fort face à l’euro », a dit M. Kalt. Les entreprises ayant principalement des clients dans la zone euro vont particulièrement souffrir du raffermissement du franc.

De fait, la devise suisse se raffermissait nettement après l’annonce de la BNS, autant face à l’euro (1,16083 EUR/CHF) qu’au dollar (0,89 USD/CHF).

« La BNS estime vraisemblablement que l’économie suisse sera en mesure de faire face à ce choc et estime très limité le risque de récession à court terme », a souligné l’économiste.

Avec cette décision surprise, la BNS a devancé la prochaine annonce par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) d’un programme de relâchement quantitatif par le biais de rachats massifs d’obligations. Une telle mesure aurait « renforcé la pression sur la BNS » qui aurait encore dû augmenter son bilan pour défendre le franc, selon M. Kalt.

Quatre ans après l’introduction d’un taux de change plancher à 1,20 EUR/CHF, « l’Europe n’a toujours pas fait ses devoirs et n’a pas réglé le problème de la dette », a-t-il dit.

M. Kalt s’attend à devoir corriger en baisse ses prévisions de croissance. « Il y aura vraisemblablement un ralentissement, principalement chez les exportateurs ». UBS table jusqu’à présent sur une croissance de 1,6% en 2014 et de 1,4% en 2015.

Lire l’original de l’article:

http://www.bilan.ch/economie/labandon-taux-plancher-va-laisser-traces-leconomie-suisse

La Banque mondiale réduit les previsions

TORONTO, Janvier 14, 2015

IMG_3173La Banque mondiale a réduit mardi ses prévisions de croissance de l’économie mondiale en 2015 en raison d’une conjoncture afaiblie dans la zone euro, au Japon et sur certains marchés émergents.

Dans son dernier rapport semestriel, l’organisme dit s’attendre désormais à une croissance de 3% pour l’économie mondiale, contre 3,4% en juin dernier.

En 2016, le produit intérieur brut du monde devrait croître de 3,3%, ajoute la Banque mondiale, qui avait prédit dans son dernier rapport une croissance de 3,5%.

Ce pessimisme peut surprendre à l’heure où l’économie américaine redémarre et où les prix du pétrole baissent.

« L’économie mondiale est à un croisement déconcertant », a dit à la presse l’économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale, Kaushik Basu.

« Le moment est particulièrement difficile en ce qui concerne la prévision économique, » a-t-il ajouté. « L’économie mondiale est propulsée par un seul réacteur, le réacteur américain. Cela ne suffit pas pour dessiner pour le monde un avenir radieux ».

Source:

www.reuters.com

Tesla to boost production of electric cars

Automotive-News-World-Congress

TORONTO, January 14, 2015
From Automotive News World Congress 2015

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) plans to boost production of electric cars to “at least a few million a year” by 2025 from fewer than 40,000 last year.

Speaking at an industry conference in Detroit yesterday, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla may not be profitable until 2020. In addition, Tesla’s sales in China were unexpectedly weak in the fourth quarter. He blamed a misperception by city-dwelling Chinese consumers that they might have difficulty charging their electric cars. “We’ll fix the China issue and be in pretty good shape probably in the middle of the year,” he said.

Tesla shares fell 7 percent in after-hours trade to $190.22 from a close of $ 204.25 on the Nasdaq. During 2014, Tesla stock rose nearly 48 percent.

Musk, who last year said Tesla will begin phasing in “autopilot” features on its Model S sedan, predicted that the company will be first to market with a fully self-driving car, but likely not until after 2020. While Tesla may have a driverless car ready in five years, the vehicles may not receive regulatory approval for another two to three years after that, he said.

Musk also said the company’s long-delayed Model X sport utility vehicle will be launched this summer, while the lower-priced, higher-volume Model 3 is on track for a 2017 introduction.

The Model 3 will be critical to Tesla’s goal of reaching an annual sales level of 500,000 vehicles a year by 2020, a target that Musk also reaffirmed.

If Tesla hits its target of a few million vehicles by 2025, it would put the company on par with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which sold 2 million vehicles last year in the United States.

Musk said Tesla likely won’t achieve profitability using generally accepted accounting principles (GAPP) until the Model 3 ramps up to full production in 2020, although it may report non-GAAP profits before then as sales volume rises.

Musk told attendees at the Automotive News World Congress that “we could make money now if we weren’t investing” in new technology and vehicles such as the Model 3 and expanded retail networks, Musk said.

On another topic, Musk said he was open to partnerships with retailers to sell Tesla vehicles, but not until after the company no longer has production bottlenecks.

“Before considering taking on franchised dealers, we also have to establish (more of) our own stores,” he said. Musk said “we will consider” franchising “if we find the right partner.” He did not elaborate but said Tesla “is not actively seeking any partnerships” with other manufacturers “because our focus is so heavily on improving our production” in Fremont, California.

Last year, Tesla delivered about 33,000 Model S sedans. Musk said the current wait for delivery is one to four months. Tesla already has pre-sold every Model S that it plans to build in 2015, Musk said.

He said he did not see the Chevrolet Bolt, a low-priced electric car planned by General Motors Co. for 2017, as a potential competitor to he Model 3.

“It’s not going to affect us if someone builds a few hundred thousand vehicles,” he said in reference to the Bolt, which GM expects to price to compete directly with the Model 3.

But he added, “I’d be pleased to see other manufacturers make electric cars”.

Tesla Motors, Inc. is an American company that designs, manufactures, and sells electric cars and electric vehicle powertrain components. Tesla Motors is a public company that trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol TSLA.

Source: 

http://ir.teslamotors.com

http://www.autonews.com/section/world-congress02

 

ENTDECKTE RESSOURCEN

 Newsletter ENTDECKTE RESSOURCEN Herbst/Winter 2014

 

Newsletter Saga

Wie immer. Die Faszination und die Leidenschaft für Technik, Wissenschaft, Kultur sowie für die sprudelnde Innovation reiten unsere Studienreisen auch in der Sommerzeit. In diesem Jahr (14. – 18. August) haben wir nach neuesten Erkenntnissen in der Umweltwissenschaft und der Erneuerbaren Energie in der Schweiz geforscht: Bio- Landwirtschaft, Agrar-Tourismus und Alpine Wasserkraft.

Resources & Roots. Neue und alte Ressourcen und ihre Quellen für wissbegierige Studenten und Dozenten aus der japanischen Universität Saga gaben ihre wertvollen nachhaltigen Lehrstücke preis. Der Event wurde dem Jubiläum „150 Jahre Schweiz- Japan Diplomatische Beziehungen“ gewidmet.

Mehr lesen Download PDF Newsletter  RESOURCES & ROOTS  JAPAN-SCHWEIZ 2014-.pdf

 

Emmi strengthens business over the ocean

ZURICH, January 12, 2015

Emmi is acquiring 100 % of the shares in the cheese business of J.L. Freeman, based in Boucherville, Canada. The company is Canada’s leading importer of speciality cheeses, primarily from Switzerland. This move enables Emmi to expand its position in North America and secure market access for exports from Switzerland.

logo_emmiEmmi has improved its strategy in North America over the past few months. Its planned measures include making more targeted use of resources to strengthen its position in the speciality cheese business. The acquisition of 100 % of the shares in the cheese business of J.L. Freeman Limited Partnership Cheese Import and Distribution Operation (hereinafter: J.L. Freeman), domiciled in Boucherville, Canada, marks another step in the desired direction.

The deal allows Emmi to establish another important base in North America that will build on its strong position in the US and existing presence in Canada. With this acquisition, the company is securing direct access to an interesting market, extending the value chain of its speciality cheese exports to Canada and creating potential for the export of additional products from the Emmi Group.

79~v~jl-freemanJ.L. Freeman is one of the leading cheese importers in Canada. More than half of its imports are cheeses from Switzerland – such as Le Gruyère AOP, Emmentaler AOP, Fondue and various specialities – and another important part is cheese from Italy and France. J.L. Freeman generates sales of around CAD 38 million (almost CHF 35 million) and employs 18 members of staff in its cheese business.

Emmi’s CEO Urs Riedener commented: « J.L. Freeman is an established, profitable company which has been working successfully with Emmi for almost 60 years. Its leading position in the import of speciality cheeses offers an excellent marketing opportunity for Swiss cheese varieties and specialities such as Kaltbach and Swiss Fondue. » J.L. Freeman cheese business will continue to operate independently and under the leadership of its current management in future.

The acquisition is planned for the first quarter of 2015 and will enter into force once the necessary official authorisations from the Canadian government have been issued. Stronger focus on the speciality cheese business in North America

The US is Emmi’s largest foreign market and the company has been generating solid sales growth there for years. Emmi’s focus in North America is on the speciality cheese business. The first pillar of this business is Emmi Roth USA. The company produces renowned brands of cheese made from cow’s milk and imports speciality cheeses from Switzerland (including Kaltbach, Fondue and Le Gruyère AOP). The second pillar is Cypress Grove Chevre, which produces premium goat’s cheese and is based in Arcata, California. As the leading importer of speciality cheeses in Canada, J.L. Freeman ideally complements Emmi’s position in North America.

Emmi is the largest Swiss milk processor and one of the most innovative premium dairies in Europe. In Switzerland, the company focuses on the development, production and marketing of a full range of dairy and fresh products as well as the production, ageing and trade of primarily Swiss cheeses. Outside Switzerland, Emmi concentrates on brand concepts and specialities in established European and North American markets, and increasingly in emerging markets outside of Europe. The primary focus in fresh products is on lifestyle, convenience and health products. In the cheese business, Emmi positions itself as the leading company worldwide for Swiss cheese. Emmi’s customers are the retail trade, the hospitality and food service sector and the food industry. In 2013, Emmi posted net sales of CHF 3,298 million and a net profit adjusted for non-recurring effects of CHF 98 million. In the first half of 2014, the company achieved net sales of CHF 1,625 million and net profit (adjusted) of CHF 45 million. As of 30 June 2014, the company employed more than 5,266 people (full-time equivalents) in Switzerland and abroad.

J.L. Freeman S.E.C. was established in 1928 and is a leading importer and trader of foods, alcoholic beverages and health and beauty products in Canada. In its speciality cheese business, the company will generate sales of around CAD 38 million (approximately CHF 35 million) in 2015 with 18 employees. The headquarters of J.L. Freeman S.E.C. are located in Boucherville, Canada.

 

Contacts

Analysts: Esther Gerster, Head of Corporate Communications & IR

T +41 58 227 50 69, E-mail: esther.gerster@emmi.com

Media:

Sibylle Umiker, Head of Media Relations
T +41 58 227 50 66, E-mail: media@emmi.com

 

Source:  

http://group.emmi.com

http://www.jlfreeman.ca

 

TUNISIA – Revision to Stable of the Negative Outlook

 

ZURICH, January 12, 2015

Progress in political transition will boost confidence, potentially lifting growth.

DSCF6459The true perspective of a new Tunisian government in the coming weeks gives positive signals for the sovereign’s credit profile drawn by Fitch Rating Agency. The electoral process has proceeded smoothly despite security risks, and electoral outcomes have increased the likelihood of the formation of a stable, coherent government.

The secretary-general of Nida Tounes, which won the most seats in October’s parliamentary elections, said last Monday that Habib Essid had been nominated as Tunisia’s new prime minister. The announcement follows the victory of Beji Caid Essebsi, also of Nida Tounes, in presidential elections held in late December. Habib Essid will now seek to form a coalition government and name a cabinet in the next month or so.

The formation of a new government following the autumn 2014 elections would consolidate Tunisia’s political transition, which began with the fall of the Ben Ali regime in 2011. The new parliament and president have been elected for five years accordingly to the new constitution, adopted by the previous parliament. Tunisia is on successful track to become the first Arab Spring country to complete a sound transition to democracy.

Nevertheless, the political landscape remains fragmented and social tensions are still at risk, due to the fact that no party won an outright parliamentary majority. The final timing and breadth of any coalition, including whether the second-largest parliamentary party, Ennadha, will participate, remains unclear.

Good perspective for stabilisation and capacity for compromise were well demonstrated last year in the adoption of the new constitution, the formation of an ad-interim government, the approval of the electoral law, and peaceful polling. Considering the mandate that victory in the parliamentary and presidential elections gives Nida Tounes, it is quite appropriate to suggests that a coalition might have good chances to be consistent and effective in policy-making. This would be in line with the Fitch longstanding view that political transition will ultimately succeed and a new government take power in early 2015.

Political tensions have taken a toll on policy-making and performance. The ad-interim government has progressed with pro-active reforms (e.g. further raising selected subsidised prices and strengthening tax administration), but key ones on banking sector restructuring and business environment improvement have yet to be finalised and implemented.

Reliance on official lenders including the IMF and World Bank should maintain the policy anchor. Fitch Ratings considers that the next government is likely to broadly comply with fiscal consolidation commitments made by the ad-interim government in its 2015 budget (Fitch Ratings forecasts the deficit to narrow to 4.9% of GDP this year, from 5.6% in 2014).

The authorities recently announced their intention to launch a bond issue in their own name, the first since the revolution, by end-January 2015 to finance budget needs. Progress in political transition will boost confidence, potentially lifting growth. Fiscal consolidation will slow expansion but lower oil prices, together with lower oil subsidies, will ease external and fiscal positions. This will help improve Tunisia’s twin deficits, but sustainably unwinding them will take time. An improved policy stance would therefore be key to a revision to Stable of the Negative Outlook on Tunisia’s ‘BB-‘ rating in 2015. The next scheduled review will be on 27 March.

Source: www.fitchratings.com

La Grèce de nouveau aux épreuves

HELSINKI, le 9 janvier 2015

 

Flag_of_Greece.svgLa Grèce est au bout du souffle. Les banques et autres investisseurs privés ont en fui ce pays lors de la première crise, celle du printemps 2010. Les institutions publiques (l’état ou organisations) en détiennent la plus grande partie de la lourde dette.

La Grèce est endettée vis-à-vis des pays de la zone euro à hauteur de 194.7 milliards d’euros, dont 52.9 milliards directement auprès de différents pays, principalement l’Allemagne et la France, et 141.8 milliards auprès du Fonds européen de stabilité financière (FESF), dont sont solidaires tous les pays de la zone euro. Par ailleurs BCE a racheté 25 milliards d’obligations en 2010-2011 et le FMI a prêté 31.8 milliards d’euros. Au total, plus de 250 milliards d’euros pèsent sur les comptes publics européens et le FMI. A cette somme se rajoute 70 milliards dus à des investisseurs privés (surtout des fonds vautours, très agressifs en cas de restructuration), pour une dette publique totale de 321 milliards d’euros.

Un défaut ou une restructuration de la dette grecque impacterait directement les finances publiques des pays européens, dont la plupart se battent avec des déficits budgétaires élevés. Un effet domino serait à craindre si d’autres pays en difficulté demandaient également un aménagement de leurs remboursements. Une sortie de la zone euro, comme l’aurait évoquée la chancelière Angela Merkel selon le Spiegel cette semaine, signifierait un abandon total des créances et une perte sèche pour les pays européens. Dans tous les cas, la crédibilité de la zone euro serait sévèrement atteinte.

L’éventuelle arrivée au pouvoir du candidat d’extrême-gauche Alexis Tsipras, le leader de Syriza, inquiète les marchés. Tsipras envisage renégocier  la dette du pays et stopper les programmes d’austérité budgétaire.  Les marchés seront soulagés et se remettront à monter au cas ou Alexis Tsipras n’arrive pas en tête du gouvernement. Avec ou sans les elections la Grèce est en faillite et le moment de payer ses dettes est imminent.

Les marchés boursiers chutent, car le résultat des élections législatives anticipées du 25 janvier est probable. La confiance est au point zero.  Personne n’a la solution pour cette nouvelle crise tant il est évident que la Grèce ne pourra pas rembourser ses dettes. Le périmètre à haut risque a été franchie depuis longtemps. Avec 174% de son PIB, la Grèce a le deuxième taux le plus élevé au monde après le Japon. Mais au Japon la banque centrale rachète la dette massivement, tant que la BCE laisse couler le temps et fait jouer les limites de la solidarité des pays de la Union Européenne /RLU

 

The Finnish TEKES supports Compassion Researchers

HELSINKI, January 8, 2015

Helsinki University City Centre Campus Library in Finland by AOA architects.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The researchers studying the power of compassion have received a seven-figure sum in research funding from Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation.

The University of Helsinki project asks what compassion means in the everyday life of an organisation and in its interactions with partners, how is it generated, maintained and strengthened, and how can it improve profitability.

The CoPassion project is being launched at the beginning of January. Its goal is to help companies and communities recognise the potential in immaterial value creation which can be made into a competitive asset.

Anne Birgitta Pessi, professor of church and society, who runs the Revolutionary Power of Compassion program at the University of Helsinki emphasizes the power of the immaterial asset – the power of compassion.

The researcher are studying the impact of compassion exercises on different communities, in relation to innovations and creativity, employee engagement, workplace wellbeing, sales, customer experience as well as an atmosphere and culture of compassion and motivation.

The three-year project involves researchers and steering group members from the University of Helsinki, the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, Aalto University and the University of Jyväskylä. Other partners include an insurance company, art museum and television channel.

Source: www. unversity.helsinki.fi

Teollisuuden Voima Oyi says cuts are needed

HELSINKI, January 8, 2015

220px-Teollisuuden_Voiman_logo.svgFinnish nuclear consortium Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) said Thursday it’s planning to cut up to 110 jobs, around 13% of its work force, to lower annual costs by 15 million euros ($17.7 million).

The company said the cuts are needed to compensate for the negative impact caused by low electricity prices in the Nordics and by delays in the construction of TVO’s third nuclear reactor at its production site in Olkiluoto on Finland’s west coast.

« Electricity market price has dropped and there are no signs of improvement in the coming foreseeable future, » TVO’s Chief Executive Jarmo Tanhua said in a statement.

The planned job and cost cuts come even though TVO reported earlier this month that Olkiluoto power plant produced more electricity during 2014 than in any other year in its 35-year-long history. The two-unit plant achieved a combined load factor of 96.0%.

Mr. Tanhua said that costs related to nuclear power production have increased while delays in construction of TVO’s third reactor, dubbed Olkiluoto 3, have caused « remarkable additional costs. »

Olkiluoto 3 was originally slated to start operations in 2009, but it is now expected to come online in late 2018. The reactor is being jointly built by the French nuclear giant Areva SA and the German engineering group Siemens AG.

TVO, Areva and Siemens are now in the midst of an arbitration proceeding over the financial losses caused by the delays at Olkiluoto 3.

According to the latest updated figures disclosed by TVO in November 2014, TVO is seeking EUR2.3 billion in financial compensation from Areva-Siemens, while Areva-Siemens’s claim against TVO now stands at EUR 3.4 billion.

TVO currently employs 840 people. The company said that operational personnel at its power plants and personnel authorized by the Finnish nuclear safety authority STUK are excluded from the planned lay-offs.

Finnish power utility Fortum Oyj owns 26.6% of TVO, and the Finnish paper and pulp maker UPM-Kymmene Oyj holds a major shareholding in TVO via another power utility called Pohjolan Voima Oy.

Source: Dow Jones News